BRIEF January 29, 2025

Trade Watch

Trade Expands Amid Expectations of Higher Tariffs

Global goods trade accelerated in the five months from July through November amid strong US economic growth and a spurt in demand fueled by expectations of higher import tariffs.
Trade in services, which is reported with a lag, expanded further in the July to September period, and international tourist arrivals recovered to exceed pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter of 2024.
A measure of stress in global supply chains rose in December to the highest level since March 2022, driven by the extended rerouting of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope and the increase in trade volumes. Freight rates rose at a slower pace and remained 40 percent above the level of a year earlier.

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Trade Watch—a joint product of the Trade and International Integration Unit in the World Bank’s Research Group (DECRG) and the Trade Unit in the Trade, Investment, and Competition (TIC) department of the World Bank—provides up-to-date data from an array of sources, along with analysis of recent trade developments.

About the Trade Watch series

Since April 2020, the World Bank has produced the COVID-19 Trade Watch series, which tracks trade flows in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. The series relies on real-time shipping data, official trade statistics for goods and services, and other sources to provide a perspective on how trade is responding to the latest economic developments.